Analysis of the Cabuz river flow estimate using rainfall from the WRF model and recorded rainfall
Keywords:
Cabuz River, WRF model resolution, synthetic unit hydrograph, initial potential retention, flood, runoffAbstract
The use of numerical weather models is important for any National Weather Service. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a numerical meteorological model used in this study as a tool for estimating flows using their forecast rainfall. This study shows the importance of the use of numerical meteorological models as tools in hydrology applied to basins that present records of floods that cause severe damage to the population that is in them, such is the case of the Cabuz river from Guatemala, where this study is applied. It is expected that this first approximation of the model will allow early warning systems to be implemented in the future to help reduce disasters in the Cabuz river basin. In this study, a meteorological model and a hydrological model were used to carry out a rainfall-runoff analysis. Eight heavy rainfall events from 2010 were selected to calibrate the basin using the SCS synthetic unit hydrograph methodology. The 2014 selected rainfall events were modeled using the calibration conditions of the basin as a base. The results show that the rainfall hydrographs predicted by the WRF model, and the recorded rainfall had significant variations, which are attributed to the resolution used in the model or to the influence that the initial potential retention in the basin can generate, for which reason recommends further studies on these two aspects to reduce these differences found.
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